Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
