Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
